2012 in Review--2013 Free Energy Predictions

In 2012, once again, Andrea Rossi's E-Cat dominated free energy news in volume of coverage, but this year a number of other Low Energy Nuclear Reaction (LENR -- colloquially called "cold fusion", which is probably inaccurate since "transmutation" is the likely mechanism, not "fusion") technologies rose to prominence as well, most notably Defkalion and Brillouin. Though they didn't make it into the news much, Nanospire's story of cavitation being a driver to use Zero Point Energy to facilitate the nuclear event, captured our imagination about a new prime mover for the 21st century.

As I prepared the LENR-Weekly compilation of news from around the world each week over this past year, typically around a third to a half of the 30 to 60 stories each week were about Rossi's E-Cat and Hot-Cat, with an increasing proportion being about other LENR companies, projects, and technologies; or about the field in general.

For me, and I think for the field in general, the most exciting development has been the emergence of the Martin Fleischmann Memorial Project (MFMP) over at http://QuantumHeat.org which seeks to replicate Francesco Celani's open source cell and make a kit that can be distributed to universities around the world to prove to academia once and for all that LENR is real and very exciting as a clean, affordable energy source for mankind. They are still in the stage of replicating, but expect to roll out kits in 2013.

Meanwhile, in academia, the most surprising, consistent news maker has been the Athanor Hydrobetatron LENR Cell of the Leopoldo Pirelli Industrial High School in Rome that has held two conferences and posted replications and improvements in the field since their debut in April. While most universities are ignoring the subject, the Pirelli High School has been showing leadership surpassing nearly anything taking place at any university worldwide, except maybe Bologna, MIT, and the University of Missouri.

2012 Not as Great as I Predicted

(Nearly verbatim repeat of what I said last year, with a few modifications.)

Just as the year prior, once again my predictions for 2012 turned out to be far too optimistic for what would unfold in the world of free energy (devices that harness energy provided freely by the wheelwork of nature), compared to what actually materialized. While there were many great advances toward the marketplace by several exotic free energy technology companies, 2012 was a let-down for me personally because I tend to think things are going to happen sooner than they do.

Progress was indeed made last year, and we definitely got closer to some of these exotic modalities emerging. Bear in mind that much took place behind the scenes -- inventors making significant breakthroughs but not wanting any coverage.

Overall, it seemed to me that some higher guidance system for the planet was saying, "You don't deserve it yet." And I said as much several times in some interview opportunities I had, such as on Gaiam TV and Coast to Coast AM.

With the economies of the world spinning into melt-down mode, I've felt an extreme urgency to help facilitate the emergence of these free energy technologies that make energy so much cheaper, portable and clean; while creating jobs, instilling hope, and fostering independence from the central powers that be.

While the solutions are so close to materializing, something seems to be holding them back.

It's as if mankind needs to go through at least a certain extent of collapse, to experience the consequences of the bad decisions we've made and priorities we've displayed in recent generations.

But like the addict, we don't have to "hit the wall" before we wake up. We can see the handwriting on the wall and wake up before losing everything. The problem is that the "denial" mode of the addict prevents them from admitting their problem until they hit the wall.

We have become addicted to acquiring frivolous stuff while trashing the planet, living for today while building debt for tomorrow, both financially as well as in terms of planetary resources.

We let our kids play violent, greedy, and lascivious computer games; and we let them watch programs that glorify these things as well; role-playing behaviors that we would never support in real life, even while subtly endorsing those behaviors by allowing them in games and entertainment.

The list of grievances against what is good and right is extensive. Does such a degenerate society deserve free energy technology?

The encouraging thing is the awakening that has been happening, both recently as well as over the long haul by the pioneers of enlightenment that have always been with us, pushing the envelope, getting us to realize what is truly important -- eternal values such as love, freedom, hope, seeing the best in each other, repentance, forgiveness, gratitude, etc. -- and promoting higher ways of seeing life: the interconnectedness of all things, the divine potential in each, the value of opposition, the power of positive thinking, not giving in to fear, etc.

Yes, we should continue to do what we can to help free energy technologies emerge, but we also need patience to realize that there is an element of timing to coincide with the maturation or metamorphosis of society.

Highlights from 2012

I prepared a page at PESWiki that lists the highlight stories from 2012.

Moving into first position in our Top 5 Exotic Free Energy Technologies listing has been the heretical self-looped motor-generator concept demonstrated by several different companies and inventors. Who would have thought that you could pair up a lower-powered motor with a higher-powered generator (method of pairing is unclear), and loop back the output from the generator to keep the motor turning, while producing an excess of output power for practical use? Where does the excess energy come from? How does it show up in the system? How does the system harvest that energy from the environment?

Supposedly, a company in India has thoroughly tested this and engineered it to the point of being ready to take into production, with product expected in the India marketplace by April. I asked them if I could speak with their engineers who did that testing, but so far, I have not received a response. They're the company that paid for my airline ticket to Europe in September, and who repeatedly promised to reimburse my travel expenses, but have not done so yet. Hopefully, their Customer Service will be better than that. The technology they are presently featuring on their website is hokey. One of the reasons I take them seriously, notwithstanding these shortcomings, is that when I met with the CEO when he flew to SLC to meet with Mark Dansie and myself, he showed me a video of the self-looped motor generator, and he showed me photos of himself with the Chief Minister of Punjab, as well as communications he had had that day with him.

The MSV Explorer amphibious vehicle that allegedly will be able to travel indefinitely without stopping for fuel, which is scheduled to go to market this month in the U.K., may be based on the same concept. They're expecting to get third-party test results from a university this month. While they are able to expand the applications, that's not really their interest, so the right partner who has adequate global manufacturing, marketplace, and financial muscle could find a great opportunity here. If that's not you, don't pester them with inquiries. Wait.

The nearness to market of these Q-Mo-Gen (the "Q" because the shape of the Q depicts the self-looped, with energy left over) technologies has bumped the E-Cat into second position, and the E-Cat is likely to drop further as other modalities push closer to market. It's not just a matter of being in the market (e.g. with the 1 MW E-Cat systems), but with how widespread the technology is likely to be, that determines top positions in the Top 5. Once Rossi is able to have a 1 MW plant that potential customers can visit and inspect, then sales of those units is likely to greatly accelerate. That was supposed to have happened in Italy last November or December, but hopefully will materialize within the first quarter of 2013.

Just last week, I moved a new technology into position #3. NRGLab's SH Box. My reasons included: good price point: $0.03/kW-h; portable, solid-state, 24/7/365 constant; strong independent validation, including by TUV; strong business team and plan (not that I agree with the strategy); licensing the technology in a non-disruptive approach; science is not too much of a stretch; nearness to market (2014).

However, it turns out that I may have been rash in drawing these conclusions without first consulting the various advisors in our network. There are some serious problems with their business approach (since when will a licensee show up and bid in an auction on a multi-million dollar license in an afternoon, when usually, such decisions take several months of due diligence review?); and there are questions about the technology's feasibility as well -- both in the material longevity, as well as the calculations for the alleged price point.

I will be getting some answers from NRGLab in the next few days, and I'm holding out to see their responses before adjusting their position in our Top 5.

One of the things that will be a very high priority for me in 2013 is to make our screening or vetting process much more robust. I want to move away from the Top 5 being my list, with input from others, to being a list that reflects the decisions of a brain trust of qualified people in the various genres represented. Having a proper, independent vetting organization will also be very useful for helping these emerging technologies get the credibility they deserve (if they deserve it). There is some good movement in this direction, which we will be reporting on in the coming weeks.

Frankly, after nearly 11 years at this, I'm tired of wild goose chases. I want to see the real deal get to market, and I'm not going to be in a very good mood until I do. I'm getting more jaded, less patient, more skeptical, and especially less inclined to be taken for a ride by a scammer. I've had too many of those rides. As we grow our network, we will also have a stronger legal team to bring down the frauds.

In fourth place, I have Steorn's HephaHeat technology, which is in process of being taken to market by the two largest residential electric hot water heater companies in the world. We're talking a hot water heater that will cost about as much as the electric heater its replacing, but will consume 1/5 as much energy because it's pulling from the surroundings somehow -- free energy. That roll-out is not going to happen quickly because "super-tankers don't turn easily." We're talking one year minimum, from now. But once they come out, the product distribution will number in the millions, and will fully vindicate Steorn, then opening them to license for the myriad of other applications. The one that CEO Sean McCarthy is most keen to pursue next is cell phone power, removing the need to recharge.

Same as last year, Defkalion remains in position 5. They got us excited last year with a bunch of independent testing in March, but then they delayed publication of those results until October, when they released one set of results from a guy who works for NASA, but was not representing them in this capacity. Defkalion's move from Greece to Vancouver, B.C., Canada (due to investors not wanting to invest in any Greek venture) also set them back quite a bit in their progress. Hopefully, they are now in a position to resume their progress.

Percolating...

In addition to these front-runners, there are a number of technologies that we'll be watching closely to see how they materialize.

There has been a lot of talk in recent months about Magnacoaster finally shipping out units to customers on back-order for four years. We don't have any evidence yet (photos, videos, witness statements, affidavits) that this is true; but supposedly, this will be coming soon in the next few weeks. If so, they will be bumped somewhere into the Top 5, depending on their price point, performance data, and ability to roll out with a substantial rate of production.

Hopefully, Raphial Morgado will be finishing his new 6-inch MYT engines and wow us with some incredible applications of that technology by mid-2013.

The Zydro Energy Device group has made some great advances in miniaturizing the technology and improving its efficiency. They still haven't convinced Mark Dansie that they have genuine overunity, but he remains optimistic about them.

That "confidential" technology I had in #1 position for a while is making progress, but it has been much slower than I had hoped. Until they have a self-looped system, the ultimate proof of the technology, they will have a hard time bringing in money and licensees. I removed it from the Top 5 and put it into a "Wildcard" classification in the runners up: "waiting...."

By the way, in case you missed our news link last month, we have a "Tracking" page where we give the reasons for moving things up/down in the Top 5 and runners up.

One company I'll be reporting on, probably tomorrow, is Yildiz' magnet motor. They have a 72-hour demo coming up at the end of this month, but skepticism should not be put aside.

Finally, I'll be curious to see how Elecotric unfolds. We sure had a rough start with them, and even though it was partially our fault from a mistaken identity -- a comedy of errors -- it seemed to me that the whole process was helpful in bringing out their true colors in a very rapid way. While we would all love for that technology to be real, I don't hold out much hope for that one.

Other Developments of Note...

For me personally, establishing the incubation service, New Energy Systems Trust (NEST) last May was a highlight of the year. We've been having weekly meetings as we track various technologies, often under-the-radar projects. Producing the Idea-to-Market flow chart was a tremendous accomplishment. It's like providing a road map. So many people are naive about just how difficult it is to bring a technology to market. Coming soon, we're going to be launching a crowdfunding platform for New Energy projects, to help make funding democratic, and removing the angel investor logjam that holds so many projects up. We have the platform built and are now populating it with a few test/sample projects before launching it publicly.

Another highlight was the Global Breakthrough Energy Movement conference in Holland as well as the TeslaTech conference in Albuquerque. There are some very enthusiastic and motivated people stepping forward to help strengthen the global movement. We look for great things from Jeroen van Straaten and Todd Ridolph, among others.

2012 in Review--2013 Free Energy Predictions

Year-End Reviews by PESN

See also