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Opinion
Peak Loading of the Grid Poses Another Peak Crisis
The economy isn't the only woe the U.S. faces. It's grid is also in
dire straights due to its pending inability to meet peak load. Meanwhile,
off-peak lulls, presently largely wasted, are enough to power our vehicles.
by Paul
Noel
Pure Energy Systems News
Electrical usage over one day (Dec. 7, 2004)
in Humbolt County, illustrates the peak usage in the evening.
Electrical utilities must built to supply peak. (Source: NorthCoastJournal) |
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A key issue discussed at the National Governors Conference this weekend has been
the issue of peak loading of the grid and how to get energy on time to where it
is needed. This is a national emergency issue on a par with the dire
situation of the economy. Without remedy, the power grid could fail soon.
The only issue is if we can get it fixed fast enough. It needs about $500
Billion in fixes this year. It probably needs about $5 Trillion in fixes
over the next 10 years.
This is why you see discussion of "Smart Grid" technology.
That is to try to bring down the size of the generation units.
The power grid is the largest machine ever built. It covers the entire continent
and is unbelievably massive. It has reserve capacity to power our cars.
It cannot do this if the use peaks at uncontrolled times. In order to
handle cars and tankless hot water heaters and a myriad of other peak generating
devices, the grid would have to increase in size about 300% in order to survive.
That is IMPOSSIBLE.
The environmental cost of allowing these high peak loading devices onto the grid
without the "Smart Grid" intelligence is absolutely insane. I am not
against "On Demand" or "Tankless" Natural Gas units and I am
not against the electrical ones but the consequences are a decision to build
300% more grid.
If pulling from off-peak slow times, the Grid has enough power to power all of
our cars -- energy that is presently largely to waste! The real issue is
what do we do to bring it into a working state. Hydrogen cars and battery
cars (which are just a different hydrogen tech) are the solution. This can be
done if the charging is timed right, becoming a completely controllable load on
the grid, putting to use the waste energy, without pulling energy during peak
times. But if these additional loads are added to the already
overburdened peak glut, then they could contribute to the problem.
One issue of the big generation of such large peaks came clear to me in the
early 1980's as the US TVA was planning 12 big nuclear plants. I
calculated the river flow which, including the Cumberland and Tennessee Rivers,
is about 180,000 cfs average. (The Colorado River has not run over 8,600
cfs in the past decade.) I calculated the waste wattage of energy (67% of
thermal rating of the plants) and calculated the amount of steam that
created and reached a stunning conclusion. US TVA was planning to send 90%
of these rivers up the cooling towers. Since the river high demand period
in summer sees as low as 50,000 cfs or less this was not a possible situation.
This is why as an example we cannot push the grid up as much as people want.
It does not matter that we have the coal or nuclear energy. We cannot cool
them!
When the Three Gorges Dam was started in China (it is equal to 18 big nuclear
plants), the dam was to provide something like 70% of China's power. It
now will provide just 2.5%. China is collapsing under this as well.
China's rivers will not hold the demand. Nobody's rivers will hold the
demand. Our oceans will die under the heat dump load of cooling in the
ocean. This process will not work the way we are going. We have to change
entirely how we do business.
I hope people realize that the limits on what we can and should be doing are not
the product of Environmental "Wacko" or "Cracked Pot" ideas.
We really are reaching some serious limits and we really are going to have to
get a lot smarter on what we are doing.
Peak Load Ratio
The Peak to Base ratio or Peak Load Ratio on the grid in the USA has been rising
steadily over the years. In the 1950's it was about 4:1. By 1990 no
Grid segment was below 6.5:1. The Ratio in some GRID segments now is well
over 17:1.
There is a ratio of GRID Maximum Demand over GRID Generator Capacity that must
never be below 1:1. Due to service requirements, the GRID really never
should be below a 1.2:1 ratio. The current NATIONAL AVERAGE
ratio on the GRID is 0.96:1. That means that the GRID is already failing
as our friends in California and the North Eastern USA should already attest.
The best expected ratio in 10 years in the USA is about 0.86:1 It
probably will be below 0.82:1 This means that on any given day in
the USA we can expect a probability that there will be deliberate brownouts of
the GRID to save it on the order of about 3% probability. In the Summer
and Winter this probability reaches near 100% certainty. This will
cause failure of our economy as our industry will be shut down entirely.
The USA is fast headed towards becoming a 3rd world country over this peak
loading issue.
What you can do
There are some things you can do to fix this. Adopt devices that minimize
your peak loading such as high efficiency HVAC and other devices.
Adopt methodologies to minimize your base loading. The one device to focus
on here is computers and TV devices. Of course invent and if
you can get off the GRID as much as possible. Local Generation and such is
imperative. If you own a business or factory you must anticipate having to
locate on your site generation capacity to handle your operation and of course
consider its fuel issues. This later solution actually causes more
energy demand but it gets it off the peak.
I really wish we could get attention to the seriousness of this situation.
It could be yet another anchor on the foot to take down our national economy.
The National Governors Conference this week end was seriously discussing the
matter and realized just how dire it is.
# # #
Follow-up
- On Feb. 24, 2009 at ~7:30 pm Eastern, the head of FedEx spoke to the
National Press Club on CSPAN, saying that the grid has enough unused
capacity during off hours to substantially power the nation's
vehicles. He also addressed the need to use smart grid technology.
See also
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Page composed by Sterling
D. Allan Feb. 22, 2009
Last updated March 11, 2009
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