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Rita Headed for Houston -- Could Take Out Key Remaining Refineries
The biggest remaining part of our oil refineries, and of offshore and
near-shore recovery of oil and gas, is now in the bulls eye. This could take
the USA well below the capacity of the EU and others to even ship us supplies.
"Forecasters
said Rita could be the most intense hurricane on record ever to hit Texas, and
easily one of the most powerful ever to plow into the US mainland"
(Ref;
Sept. 22)
by Paul Noel
Pure Energy Systems News - Exclusive
Copyright © 2005
Predicted hurricane path. Source: BBC
Image from Sept. 20, 2005
Hurricane Rita getting stronger and may hit Texas by weekend. |
Houston, Texas area with Salt Intrusions
marked with a red outline. These are due to land subsiding because of Oil
and Gas Extraction. Note that large areas of fields are now bare, with
only sand visible. Projected strike point for Rita is near text at bottom
of image. (Lines drawn by Paul Noel.)
Acknowledgement for satellite photo:
Google maps |
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HOUSTON, TX, USA -- Hurricane Rita is now forecast to become a Category 4
storm in 24 hours and to fill the entire Gulf of Mexico. (WARNING this is will
look like a rerun!)
Hurricane Rita is now forecast (all such things have a margin of error until
they happen) to make landfall about 60 to 70 miles south of the Houston Ship
Channel along the coast of Texas. The heat pictures of the Gulf of Mexico
indicate it will be passing over water that is 30 to 32 degrees C over its
entire base. Therefore, it is forecast to be a Cat 4 on landing. (I would bet on
Cat 5 with pretty good odds right now.)
[Update. As of Wednesday morning, the hurricane is already upgraded
to a category 4, and it still has the remainder of the gulf to pass over to pick
up more power yet.]
I have been watching this area since before Katrina.
If it moves as projected, it will bring a massive storm surge into a large
area that is at or below sea level. This area has sunk some 12 to 20
feet due to the withdrawal of oil from the area from the 1930s to the
present. The sinking has been so profound that salt intrusion into the ground
water is taking place over a very wide area and killing the plant life. The salt
intrusion has been influenced by freshwater withdrawals in the area as well.
So here we go again.
Houston is a city protected in part by dikes. It is not as far below sea level
as New Orleans, but still at risk.
New Orleans is now in the 30% to 40% zone for taking tropical storm conditions.
This will bring with it a storm surge. (I can only hazard a guess as to how
high.) This storm surge is probably going to swamp New Orleans again. The dikes
are breached and, though some quick repairs have been done, the city has no
reliable flood protection now.
Heads up on the oil patch. The biggest remaining part of our oil refineries and
offshore and near-shore recovery of oil and gas is now in the bulls eye of
this storms target area. This could take the USA well below the capacity of
the EU and others to even ship us supplies. We are currently taking 7 million
barrels of gasoline a day from the EU stocks, and additional oil and gas from
Canadas reserves.
Whether or not this storm materializes as it now appears it could, the scenario
provides a good reason to go for alternative energy.
# # #
Supporting Material
click for enlargement
NOAA Sea Surface Temperatures: Sept. 21, 2005: 03:44 GMT
 Global
Warming > Hurricanes
Are Getting Stronger - The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes
worldwide has nearly doubled over the past 35 years, even though the total
number of hurricanes has dropped since the 1990s. The shift has occurred as
global sea surface temperatures have increased over the same period. (PESN;
Sept. 17, 2005)- Galveston Officials Plan To
Declare A State Of Emergency - Galveston County officials plan to
declare a State of Emergency this evening. That will pave the way for the
mandatory evacuation of nursing homes and assisted-living facilities
beginning at 6 a.m. Wednesday, with a mandatory evacuation of the general
population beginning at 6 p.m. (KTRH, Sept. 20)
- Weather.com - "Hurricane
Rita is now the third most intense hurricane on record in the Atlantic
Basin." (Sept. 21; 10:05 pm mdt)
- Google News >
Rita Houston (as of Sept. 20, 5:30 pm mdt and on into Sept. 23, 8:30
am mdt)
- Rita
set to slam into oil rig central
National Business Review, New
Zealand - 40 minutes ago (Sept. 23)
Hurricane Rita continues its advance on the Texas
coast, making ready to slam with catastrophic force into one of the
densest concentration of oil rigs ...
- Rita
shuts 2.2 mln bpd of gasoline output
Reuters - 1 hour
ago (Sept. 23)
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The amount of US petroleum
product production offline due to refineries shut down because of
approaching Hurricane Rita total about 2.2 ...
- Hurricane
Rita becomes a 165-mph monster; 1.3 m evacuated
Khaleej Times, United Arab
Emirates - 32 minutes ago (Sept. 22)
GALVESTON, Texas - Gaining strength with frightening
speed, Hurricane Rita swirled toward the Gulf Coast a Category 5,
165-mph (265.5-kph) monster as more than ...
- Oil
industry wary of Rita
Austin American-Statesman
(subscription), TX - 53 minutes ago (Sept. 22)
... of Mexico is home to about a quarter of the
country's oil and natural gas production, with Houston hosting
the key refining center. Hurricane Rita could hurt ...
- Rita
a substantial threat to Gulf oil-EIA
Reuters.uk, UK - 6
hours ago
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Hurricane Rita could have
a "substantial impact" on US Gulf Coast refineries, a
situation that the nation's already tight gasoline ...
- Oil
prices jump as Hurricane Rita nears Texas coast
Minneapolis Star Tribune
(subscription), MN - 1 hour ago
NEW YORK -- Crude oil prices rose Wednesday as traders
braced for the possibility that Hurricane Rita could smash into
key oil facilities in Texas. ...
- Rita,
Now Category 4, Heads for Gulf Coast
In-Forum
(subscription), ND - 6 minutes ago
... Houston is about 50 miles northwest of
Galveston, but the area includes low-lying ... Crude oil prices
rose again on concern that Rita would smash into key oil ...
- Offer
by OPEC fails to calm oil markets
International Herald
Tribune, France - 1 hour ago
... Rita was upgraded on Wednesday to a Category
4 storm, with winds of at ... the homeland security
coordinator for Harris County, Texas, where Houston, an important
...
- Texas-bound
Rita strengthens into Category 2 hurricane
Malaysia
Star, Malaysia - 9 hours ago
... would make landfall about 100 miles southwest
of Houston, where much of the state's oil and natural gas
facilities are located. The center of Rita was located ...
- Houston-area
refineries say they're prepared
Houston Chronicle, United
States - 8 hours ago
... Orleans was bad news for the nation's energy
industry. If Hurricane Rita makes a similar visit to Houston
it could be even worse. ...
- US
refineries braced for another hit from Rita
Financial Times, UK -
19 hours ago
By Sheila McNulty in Houston. The US energy
industry braced itself on Tuesday for another blow as Hurricane Rita
swept towards the oil and gas production centre ...
- On
Move Again, Katrina Evacuees Flee Rita
Newsday, NY - 2
hours ago
... in Houston's two largest shelters,
Reliant Arena and the George R. Brown Convention Center, began making
their way to Fort Chaffee, Ark., as Hurricane Rita ...
- Air
mass holds key to Ritas direction
Brazosport Facts
(subscription), TX - 19 hours ago
At 5 pm Monday, the National Hurricane Centers
five-day forecast projected that Ritas eye could pass just
west of Houston about 2 pm Saturday, after ...
- Florida
residents prepare for Rita
Ireland
Online, Ireland - 4 hours ago
... some 40 miles south-east of Houston,
said residents should begin leaving today. Officials said a mandatory
evacuation could be ordered if Rita strengthens into ...
- US
refineries braced for another hit from Rita
Financial Times, UK -
3 hours ago
By Sheila McNulty in Houston. The US energy
industry braced itself on Tuesday for another blow as Hurricane Rita
swept towards the oil and gas production centre ...
- Hurricane
Rita becomes stronger - could soon be Category 3
CBC News, Canada -
5 hours ago
... helping with recovery from Hurricane Katrina
to prepare for Rita. Authorities stressed that those fleeing the
coastal area should bypass Houston, which could ...
- Rita
Roundup
Lone Star Times, TX -
2 hours ago
Every Galveston-Houston area resident should have
an emergency evacuation plan (including pets!) and we should also make
sure our family and neighbors who are ...
- City
officials prepare for storm's arrival
KHOU
(subscription), TX - 21 minutes ago
By Doug Miller / 11 News. Houston and Harris
County officials started making preparations Tuesday afternoon in the
event Hurricane Rita hits Houston. ...
- Mayor
says Houston ready for Hurricane Rita, citizens must
prepare
Houston Business
Journal, TX - 2 hours ago
"We have a plan and are working through it,"
said Mayor Bill White. "Houston is the best prepared city in
the country. But there ...
- Hurricane
Rita Threatens Texas, Affects Katrina Shelters
Red Cross - 2
hours ago
... At this point Ritas final
destination is unknown, but the path is heading for ... and are
urging people not to seek shelter in already crowded Houston and
head ...
- Oil
companies start evacuating
Finance24, South
Africa - 8 hours ago
... The centre has shifted its forecast path for Rita
northward and now shows the storm heading toward Houston and
running near producing areas in the western Gulf ...
- Texas
Prepares For Possibility Of Hurricane
KWTX, TX - 22
hours ago
... Galveston, which is 60 miles southeast of Houston,
was wiped out 105 years ago this month ... of the Texas coast
prepare to move out in advance of Ritas arrival ...
Related Stories by Paul Noel
Katrina coming in
See also
Page posted by Sterling
D. Allan Sept. 20, 2005
Last updated September 23, 2005
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