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Fear and Irrationality in the Oil Patch
Profit-taking and stock prices rise and fall, but fears seem to be
unfounded. Is the oil shortage real? Facts are hard to come by, and
philosophical arguments rage.
Opinion
by Mary-Sue
Haliburton
Pure Energy Systems News
Copyright © 2005
CANADA -- Stock markets were in a panic over the weekend as Hurricane Dennis,
strengthened again to category four after losing some of its punch over Cuba,
seemed to be headed straight toward major oil rigs in off the coast of Florida’s
panhandle. (Ref.) However, this fizzled as Dennis missed
the supposed target, so stock prices are on the way back down. There was concern
that the storm might exacerbate damage caused by Hurricane Ivan in the previous
year, which led to a drop in production of about 3 million barrels a day, or
about 30% of US oil supplies.
Clearly some people are nervous. Frequent news stories claim that this or that
factor will cause a sudden disastrous oil shortage, that the price will go to
$100 a barrel, and that the economy is about to tank as a result. (Ref.)
However, as the disaster said to be looming over us has once again not
materialized, it might be a good idea to consider that there are alternative
sources of energy, and that all of them are not being hit by weather bombs
simultaneously.
According to The Nicholson Files, (ref.)
an American financial leader visited the oilsands development in northern
Alberta on Friday July 8th, 2005, in the company of the Canadian Minister of
Finance Ralph Goodale and officials of oil companies with an interest in the
project. John Snow, U.S. Treasury Secretary, overflew the oilsands development
and was reported to be impressed by the vast scale of this resource. He admitted
that he had not been aware of its potential before this flight, and indicated
that he would bring this to the attention of the President on his return to
Washington.
Some authors and pundits regularly foment stock-market panic of the type seen
over the past weekend. The “Peak Oil” argument is based on the concept that
oil is a limited “fossil” fuel, and that the supply will decline and the
price will rise dramatically as demand outstrips supply – long before we
actually run out of it.
However, oil is not disappearing right away. The United States continues to fill
its reserve wells, and some apparently-drained oil fields are refilling at a
faster rate than expected. (Ref.) How? This is also hotly
debated among the abiotic oil and biotic generation of oil theorists. Whatever
the cause, the planet appears not to be running out of this form of energy
resource in the immediate future.
Alongside the promoters of this theory, but not getting mainstream press
coverage, are those who question the purpose behind the price hikes, pointing
out the profit-taking from these substantial prices hikes being implemented
before there is any real shortage at the pumps. (Ref.)
At the bottom. the debate is philosophical rather than just a battle of
statistics. On the side of oil price hikes and continued anxiety are those who
attack environmentalists for being against human progress, and for wanting to
undermine the economy. Apparently considering his opinions important enough to
bob to the first page of a search engine’s findings, Ben-Ami cites
philosophers and theorists going back to the “Enlightenment” in support of
his position. He even alleges that environmentalists are also against helping
the poor (though how oil profit-taking is going to improve their lot is not
explained). He states:
“Almost everyone accepts that climate
change means that the world needs to cut back on emissions of greenhouse
gases. Yet this would almost certainly mean holding back economic growth,
meaning that a large part of the global population will remain poor. There is
hardly any discussion of how to deal with global warming while generating
substantial economic growth at the same time.” (Ref.)
How is it is possible to hold such a position? Apparently this is tenable
only if one totally ignores the very type of technological and economic activity
being discussed on PES Network Inc. The scope and
range of human creativity and hard work to bring a new energy paradigm into
existence is totally shut out of Ben-Ami’s article, reflecting the attitude of
the mainstream press. Who benefits from suppressing this aspect of the news?
Go figure.
Contrary to his argument that “sustainability” is by definition opposed to
progress and economic health, PES contributors take the opposite view. The
new-energy paradigm will bring new jobs and positive economic activity to both
the established industrial nations and to the third world, while supporting
human health as well by reducing smog and toxins released into the environment.
Environmentalists might be surprised to find themselves lumped together with the
Club of Rome and Malthus’ alarmist theory of overpopulation, according to
Ben-Ami, especially since they have devoted so much effort to opposing this
agenda. For example, the Canadian human-rights campaigner Maude Barlow, founder
of the Council of Canadians, regularly
meets with and supports the work of grassroots organizations of third-world
farmers and laborers to help them gain some control over their lives and
economic activity. I wonder if Ben-Ami has ever even met a third-worlder. His
article fails to carry through on his promise to say how, exactly, his version
of economic growth is going to assist them.
The opposite– and more logically consistent – view attributes
Malthusian-inspired drastic population control measures (ranging from bioweapons
to permanent warfare) and the intention to create a new worldwide depression to
the same financial elite that is skimming oil profits off the economy. (Ref.)
In contrast, the hoi polloi struggle to pay the increased cost of fuel,
drugs, and other products of industrialization.
Ben-Ami does make a statement that we can in part agree with:
“This idea was expressed in scientific terms as a consequence of the
second law of thermodynamics, which states that the useful forms of energy in
any closed system decline over time. … But as previous articles on spiked
have argued, environmentalists grossly underestimate the amount of energy
available on earth (18). In any case, the earth is not a closed system - it
receives an enormous amount of energy from the sun every day (19). So the idea
that the availability of energy limits economic activity has no basis in
science.”
To that last sentence, we say a hearty Amen! Ben-Ami’s footnote #18 is to
Joe Kaplinsky who writes: “Today we have a synthesis of these two arguments.
We apparently have both too little oil and too much.” This underscores the
illogical and contradictory stance could be summed up as: "Even though we
don't have enough oil to supply your needs, we won't allow you to have any other
kind of energy generation. So, pay our outrageous prices or freeze in the
dark." Kaplinsky also observes that in order to foment pessimism about oil
supply, the fear-mongers have to dismiss or gloss over not only all of the
alternative fuel sources (such as tarsands), but also all of the emerging
alternative energy options. (Ref.)
As Tom Bearden has explained exhaustively in many articles (ref.),
the second law of thermodynamics is flawed as a paradigm for energy sourcing,
storage and use. It is even less valid as a theoretical basis for social Darwinism.
Energy from the vacuum means that we are not dealing with a closed system.
Others support this view. (Ref.)
Daniel Ben-Ami concludes:
“It is certainly right to see environmentalism as deeply pessimistic in
its perception of human beings. That is why it has so often been proved wrong
in its frequent predictions of imminent doom. But it should be seen as a form
of quackery rather than dignified with the title of science. Its gross
underestimation of human potential, with people being viewed as parasites on
the planet, inevitably leads to a misunderstanding of the social world.”
My main difference with this statement is to break the link this author has
falsely set up between environmentalists and the dark Malthusian overpopulation
alarmism. It’s not environmentalists who are out to sink the economy or
decimate the human race by means of war, disease and social breakdown. There is
a covert, powerful elite which does want to achieve that very objective while
making sure that only the wealthy (i.e. themselves) inherit the earth (or what’s
left of it). Both their beliefs and their methods would be horrifying to the
general public who consider themselves “environmentalists” in the sense of
caring about the environment and their fellow human beings. (Ref.)
Given the creativity and “negentropic” life energy of human beings,
challenges such as feeding large populations, and finding new and more efficient
ways to capture and use energy are far more likely to be overcome, if we don’t
give in to the fears that are being circulated – one might almost say,
marketed – about oil shortages and the collapse of civilization as we know it.
Let’s shift the focus to the creative solutions already in the works.
# # #
MEMO
PES Network, Inc., mentioned in the above article, is in process of merging
with the Open Source Energy Network.
REFERENCES
Preface
The above story was spurred by the following email:
From: "Paul
Noel" <email
>
Sent: Friday, July 08, 2005 5:53 PM
Subject: Contact PES Network Inc. Executive Director
Hi just a little upshot on conditions on the US Gulf Coast in the Oil
Patch. Hurricane Dennis is headed as a category 4 storm directly into the
off shore gas and oil Achilles heal of the world. Off line as of this
moment is almost 3 million barrels of oil a day production and about 30% of US
natural gas supplies. If the hurricane further degrades the operations
after the damage and on scale with IVAN of last year, we could see a real world
wide energy emergency.
This could represent a total loss to the world market of some 4.5 to 5.5 million
barrels of oil a day and love it or leave it up to about 10% of world natural
gas supplies. The effects on the energy supply and price here are (!!!!!!)
awful!!!!
In any case just thought you might like to know.
Paul Noel
Harvest, Alabama
Related Coverage
- Indonesian
Tsunami Tripped by Exxon-Mobile Works? - One cubic mile of natural
gas extracted every four years at epicenter Aceh facility presents a
possible man-made trigger in 9.0 earthquake. (PESN; January 25, 2005)
[Contributed in part by Paul Noel]
See also
Page posed by SDA
July 6, 2005
Last updated July 16, 2005
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